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A specialist intelligence advisory

Country risk forecasting solutions to mitigate threats and maximise opportunities
in emerging and frontier markets across Africa, Asia, and the Middle East.




Uncertainty is at an all time high. Instability, insecurity, and conflict are intensifying globally, exacerbated by climate change.
In a complex and multi-polar world, your risk management strategies should go beyond merely avoiding risk.



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We focus on country risk in emerging and frontier markets to create a sustainable competitive advantage for our clients across a broad spectrum of industries.

Our specialist country risk solutions consider interconnected risk perils across the political, economic, and security environment.

We track indicators, map scenarios, and plot the risk trajectory to help you navigate risk and maximise opportunity.

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PANGEA-RISK ANIMATED INFOGRAPHICS

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CÔTE D’IVOIRE AFTER THE POLLS: CONTINUITY, STABILITY, AND THE ROAD AHEAD

03 November 2025

Côte d’Ivoire’s 25 October election reaffirmed political stability, though succession and investor confidence remain uncertain. Join Head of Advisory Gabrielle Reid and CEO Robert Besseling as they unpack results and market implications.

EMERGING MARKETS 2025: PRIVATE CREDIT’S NEW FRONTIER?

22 October 2025

Private credit is pivoting from the West to the dynamic growth engines of Africa, Asia, and the Middle East, and investors are redefining what constitutes opportunity and risk.

WEBINAR: AFRICAN ELECTIONS OUTLOOK

08 October 2025

With contentious elections around the corner in Cameroon, Ivory Coast, and Tanzania, Head of Advisory, Gabrielle Reid, interviews Pangea-Risk Africa analysis team and CEO Robert Besseling on the commercial impact of these tense ballots.

TANZANIA: PRESIDENT SET FOR VICTORY IN OCTOBER 2025 ELECTIONS

03 October 2025

Tanzania’s president and ruling party are likely to retain power in the October 2025 elections, ensuring policy continuity and improvements in the investment climate.

ASIA’S STRATEGIC ROLE IN GLOBAL ENERGY, MINERALS, AND INVESTMENT FLOWS WEBINAR

24 September 2025

Asia is emerging as a pivotal force in global trade and investment, balancing vulnerabilities with opportunities. In this webinar, Pangea-Risk’s regional specialists explore Asia’s rising role as an investor in Africa’s fast-growing markets.

PANGEA-RISK EXPANDS COUNTRY RISK FORECASTING COVERAGE TO ASIA

04 September 2025

JAPAN SEEKS TO DEEPEN ECONOMIC TIES WITH AFRICA

27 August 2025

GLOBAL TRADE REALIGNMENT BOOSTS CREDIT AND POLITICAL RISK INSURANCE MARKET

20 August 2025

IRAN-ISRAEL HOSTILITIES THREATEN ASIA’S ENERGY SECURITY

13 August 2025

TRUMP TARIFFS: ASIAN ECONOMIES COUNT THE COST

07 August 2025

MOZAMBIQUE: TOTALENERGIES’ MOZAMBIQUE LNG PROJECT SET TO RESTART

18 July 2025

RUSSIA CENTRALISES MILITARY PRESENCE THROUGH AFRICA CORPS

10 July 2025

PANGEA-RISK FREE-TO-READ INSIGHT BRIEFINGS

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MONTHLY INSIGHT - OCTOBER 2025

Wed, 29 October 2025

Amid intensifying geopolitical volatility, trade is no longer a neutral engine of growth but a theatre of strategic influence. States are weaponising trade corridors and logistics assets not simply to move goods, but to project power, enforce regulatory preferences, and test new models of economic sovereignty. This shift marks a decisive break from the old logic of globalisation. Supply chains are now determined as much by alignment and access to political capital as by price or efficiency. In this Monthly Insight, we unlock a special report on the weaponisation of trade in the context of emerging markets in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. This analysis is accompanied by a new webinar on private credit opportunities across the Global South.


SPECIAL REPORT: STRATEGIC RIVALRIES AND SECURITY SHOCKS REDEFINE THE GLOBAL TRADE LANDSCAPE

Wed, 22 October 2025

Escalating strategic competition in Asia is destabilising trade routes, with security confrontations and foreign policy realignments deepening operational uncertainty. In the Middle East, maritime insecurity and rival logistics strategies are driving risks across critical shipping and energy corridors. Meanwhile, Africa’s shifting trade geography, shaped by changing external partnerships and contested regional integration, is exposing exporters to legal, regulatory, and political volatility. Together, these developments illustrate how state-driven foreign policy strategies are compounding exposure across interconnected corridors, redefining risk for insurers and commercial operators alike.


MONTHLY INSIGHT - SEPTEMBER 2025

Wed, 01 October 2025

Generation Z protests have accelerated across South and Southeast Asia, as well as parts of Africa and even Türkiye, over the past month. In September, Pangea-Risk analysis focused on both the youth dividend of fast-growing emerging markets, notably in Southeast Asia, but also the threat of youth political mobilisation. Socio-economic frustrations and political activism are driving fresh challenges to governments. The latter trend will undoubtedly impact several upcoming African elections in October. In this Monthly Insight, we unlock a special report on the threat posed by Gen Z mobilisations to political stability and commercial operations. We also publish a new recorded webinar where our analysis team discusses the interconnections between Asian, African, and the Middle East’s trade and investment flows.


SPECIAL REPORT: RISING YOUTH MOBILISATION AND THE CHALLENGE TO POLITICAL STABILITY GLOBALLY

Wed, 17 September 2025

Youth-led protests are reshaping politics and impacting economies across emerging markets, with unrest spreading from Nepal to Kenya, Indonesia, to Mongolia. Driven by inequality, corruption, and exclusion, these movements mobilise rapidly through digital platforms and resist blunt state repression. As demographic shifts intensify, recurring protest cycles are set to become structural features of politics, testing resilience and demanding forward-looking strategies from policymakers and businesses alike.


MONTHLY INSIGHT - AUGUST 2025

Thu, 28 August 2025

In August, Pangea-Risk expanded coverage of our flagship Insight platform to Southeast Asia and China, extending country risk analysis to 100 Emerging and Frontier Markets across Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. This exciting development supports our mission to foster South-South collaboration in trade and investment, while mitigating risks in these fast-growing markets. Our analysis and forecasting capabilities focus on the nexus that interconnects some of the world’s most resilient and buoyant economies. In this Monthly Insight, we unlock special reports on Southeast Asia’s demographic dividend and on the resilience of the credit and political risk insurance market amid global challenges and trade volatility.


SPECIAL REPORT: SOUTHEAST ASIAN YOUTH DRIVE GROWTH AND INNOVATION AMID STRUCTURAL CHALLENGES

Tue, 26 August 2025

Southeast Asia’s youth are both the engine and the uncertainty of its future. Their demographic weight has fuelled expanding middle classes and rising productivity, but youth unemployment and high levels of informal sector employment risk undermining this momentum. These pressures, compounded by trade disruptions, are already shaping political dynamics and investor sentiment across the region. At the same time, a generation of entrepreneurs is building fintech, blockchain, and AI solutions that anchor Southeast Asia’s technological rise. This energy should translate into sustained growth if governments and businesses can convert the potential of youth into opportunity.


SPECIAL REPORT: GLOBAL TRADE REALIGNMENT BOOSTS CREDIT AND POLITICAL RISK INSURANCE MARKET

Tue, 19 August 2025

The global trade credit and political risk insurance market has remained remarkably upbeat on the back of the realignment of supply chains and shifting trading relations in response to US tariffs. Counterparty risk mitigation has become a C-suite conversation in corporates and banks alike, driving opportunity for the insurance market. Trade protectionism, volatile energy markets, political upheaval, and rising resource nationalism are reshaping risk profiles across Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. Insurers are increasingly focusing on project- and sector-specific coverage, while investors must navigate shifting regulatory frameworks and evolving trade barriers.


MONTHLY INSIGHT - JULY 2025

Thu, 31 July 2025

In a series of frantic meetings in July spanning from Washington DC to Stockholm in Sweden and Ayrshire in Scotland, the world’s largest trade partners managed to avoid a global trade war. The new normal for United States (US) tariffs on foreign goods starts at 15 percent based on deals with Japan and the European Union. Many emerging markets that have not concluded a deal before the 1 August deadline could face tariffs of up to 50 percent. Foreign companies have so far been absorbing the cost of trade with the US, but many firms have now begun raising prices on their US-bound goods. In this Monthly Insight, we unlock a special report on the impact of US tariffs on emerging markets across Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. We also unlock a briefing on the resurgence of Red Sea shipping risks with further consequences for global trade and supply chains. And from August, Pangea-Risk expands country risk forecasting to Southeast Asia and China, extending our coverage to a total of 100 Emerging and Frontier Markets across Africa, Asia, and the Middle East!


YEMEN: HOUTHIS RE-ENGAGE IN MARITIME ATTACKS AS RIVALS FRAGMENT AND EXTERNAL PRESSURE STALLS

Tue, 15 July 2025

The Houthis have resumed missile strikes on Israeli-linked maritime assets after a temporary halt, exploiting ambiguity within their ceasefire framework with the US. Concurrently, the Houthis have deepened logistical cooperation with Al Shabaab, leveraging Somali-controlled coastal corridors to circumvent interdiction efforts and expand drone capabilities. Domestically, the suspension of US air operations has facilitated Houthi consolidation in northern Yemen, enabled reconstruction of logistical hubs, while exposing structural dysfunction within the anti-Houthi bloc.


SPECIAL REPORT: TRUMP’S TARIFF DEADLINE LOOMS: WHAT STAKEHOLDERS IN EMERGING MARKETS NEED TO KNOW

Tue, 08 July 2025

As the newly announced 1 August deadline for Trump’s reciprocal tariff regime approaches, uncertainty looms for global trade. While some major economies have secured partial deals, many emerging markets face escalating tariffs with little recourse. This special report examines the ripple effects across supply chains, strategic sectors, and commodity diplomacy. From shifting trade alliances to critical minerals as bargaining tools, this special report explores how governments and businesses must recalibrate strategies to navigate a fragmented, transactional, and increasingly volatile trade environment.


MONTHLY INSIGHT - JUNE 2025

Thu, 26 June 2025

In June, our team criss-crossed conferences and summits in Africa, Europe, and the Middle East to participate in discussions on trade, investment, and security policy. Apart from the regional impact of the escalating war between Israel and Iran, a recurring theme in such talks has been the long-standing concern over the cost of capital for African financial institutions. In the context of annual meetings of some of Africa’s largest financial institutions in June, a recent credit rating downgrade of one of these organisations, as well as multiple controversial sovereign downgrades in Africa earlier this year, have reignited an important debate in which we at Pangea-Risk are actively participating. In this Monthly Insight, we unlock a special report on African debt restructurings and credit rating mechanisms that earlier this month already featured prominently in international media. Separately, and ahead of our wider Asian country risk coverage expansion, we unlock an Insight Briefing on the economic and security outlook of the world’s most populated nation, India.


SPECIAL REPORT: CREDIT RATING AND RESTRUCTURING DISPUTES EXPOSE MISALIGNMENT ON AFRICA DEBT RISKS

Thu, 12 June 2025

The recent credit rating downgrade of Afreximbank, a key Africa-based financial institution, has reignited concerns over elevated borrowing costs on the continent. The downgrade comes against the backdrop of a dispute among international creditors over the inclusion of loans from African multilateral institutions in sovereign restructurings. Renegotiating the terms of these debt instruments could further exacerbate existing perceptions of elevated risk in Africa, driving up sovereign borrowing costs and curtailing access to capital for development projects and trade finance, particularly during times of global economic shocks. In this context, Africa is seeking to launch its own credit ratings agency later in 2025.


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IN THE NEWS

...
Pangea Risk: Biya victory likely

Monday, 13 October 2025

Pangea-Risk Head of Advisory Gabrielle Reid discusses the implications of another Biya term in Cameroon with CNBC Africa

View the original here
...
Gen Z Anger at Ruling Elites Is Erupting Across the World

Saturday, 04 October 2025

Head of Risk Forecasting, Bilal Bassiouni, offers insights on the growing cross-border dimension to ongoing youth protests.

View the original here
...
Gen Z Sounds a Stark Warning to Africa’s Old Guard

Friday, 03 October 2025

Bloomberg reporting of Gen Z protests in Africa and Asia cites analysis by Pangea-Risk specialist intelligence advisory

View the original here

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